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Smucker’s Plans Retail Coffee Price Hike Amid Industry Challenges

Smucker’s is gearing up for another round of retail coffee price hikes in August, marking the fourth increase within a year due to soaring green-coffee costs and a US tariff on raw beans. The company, which owns popular coffee brands like Folgers and Dunkin’ at Home, saw a significant spike in net coffee sales but also reported a staggering $729 million net loss in the latest quarter.

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The surge in coffee prices is a result of various factors, including droughts in Brazil and storms in Vietnam, which have led to a doubling of arabica futures prices. European roasters, like JDE Peet’s, have faced resistance from supermarkets in countries like Germany, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands, with some chains even delisting their brands during negotiations.

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Industry experts warn that suppliers passing on inflation, tariffs, and climate-related challenges to consumers could eventually lead to pushback from both retailers and shoppers. The trend of price hikes impacting consumer behavior has been observed in various industries historically, with consumers adjusting their purchasing habits in response to escalating prices.

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Lessons from past scenarios, such as the soda tax implementations and the US baby formula shortage, highlight how consumers tend to shift towards cheaper alternatives or private labels when faced with significant price increases. The coffee industry has also witnessed fluctuations in consumption patterns, with a decline in roast-and-ground coffee consumption in North America and Europe amidst price hikes.

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As the coffee market grapples with ongoing challenges, including climate threats and potential tariff changes, suppliers are expected to continue passing on cost increases to consumers. Retailers may opt to promote private-label alternatives to maintain stable prices, as consumer preferences shift towards more budget-conscious choices.

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The future of coffee prices, consumer behavior, and retail strategies remains uncertain, with factors like climate conditions, tariffs, and consumer preferences playing significant roles in shaping the industry landscape. While premium brands may still hold appeal for some consumers, the increasing popularity of private-label coffee suggests a broader shift towards more affordable options in the market.

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Ultimately, the coffee industry faces a pivotal moment that may lead to a balance between premium offerings and commoditized products. As prices continue to fluctuate, both suppliers and retailers will need to adapt to changing consumer demands and market dynamics to ensure sustainable growth and consumer satisfaction in the coffee sector.

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