Extreme weather events are anticipated to cause significant fluctuations in food prices throughout 2025, according to supply chain analysts. The cost of cocoa and coffee has more than doubled in the past year, reflecting the impact of unexpected weather patterns. This surge in prices is seen as a potential consequence of climate change-induced food shortages, as indicated by research conducted by the consultancy Inverto.
With 2024 being declared the hottest year on record, the trend of rising global temperatures continues into 2025. Inverto’s analysis suggests that the prevalence of extreme weather events will persist, affecting regional crop yields and leading to price spikes in the food market. Notably, cocoa and coffee prices experienced the most significant increases, rising by 163% and 103% respectively due to abnormal weather conditions in their respective producing regions.
Aside from cocoa and coffee, other commodities have also seen substantial price hikes. Sunflower oil prices surged by 56% following a drought that impacted crop yields in Bulgaria and Ukraine, countries also grappling with the effects of the Russian invasion. Additionally, orange juice, butter, and beef prices rose significantly, highlighting the widespread impact of weather-related disruptions on the food supply chain.
The necessity for food manufacturers and retailers to diversify their sourcing strategies and supply chains to mitigate risks associated with crop failures has been emphasized by Katharina Erfort of Inverto. This strategic approach aims to reduce reliance on regions vulnerable to weather-related challenges, thereby enhancing resilience in the face of market fluctuations.
Against the backdrop of escalating food prices, concerns about climate change-induced food insecurity have been raised by various authorities. The UK government has linked climate breakdown to a rise in food price inflation, resulting in an increase in the number of households experiencing hunger and malnutrition. Climate scientists echo these concerns, emphasizing the direct correlation between extreme weather events and food price volatility.
Experts in food security, such as Pete Falloon from the Met Office and University of Bristol, underscore the vulnerability of crops to extreme weather conditions, underscoring the potential threats to global agricultural production and food security. Max Kotz from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research warns that without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, heat and drought extremes will continue to intensify globally, posing significant challenges to agriculture and food prices.
In conclusion, the intersection of extreme weather events and food price volatility underscores the urgent need for proactive measures to address climate change impacts on the food supply chain. As weather patterns become increasingly unpredictable, stakeholders across the industry must adapt their strategies to navigate the evolving landscape of food production and pricing dynamics.
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