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Global Coffee Market Faces Crisis as Prices Soar in 2025

In 2025, the global coffee market faced a significant challenge as coffee prices soared to record highs. The year began with hopeful expectations of a plentiful coffee bean harvest from Brazil, a key player in the global coffee supply chain. However, Brazil was hit by a severe drought, leading to a sharp decline in coffee production. This setback, coupled with similar challenges faced by major producer Vietnam, created a supply shortage that exacerbated the existing demand pressures.

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Meanwhile, Ethiopia, another top coffee-growing country, faced risks in its supply chain due to piracy threats along the Gulf of Aden. The combination of these factors, along with changing consumer preferences favoring stronger coffee varieties, contributed to a brewing crisis in the coffee industry.

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Stephen Bannister, a general manager at green coffee importer Cofi-Com Trading, shed light on the intricate coffee supply chain, emphasizing the lengthy process from tree to cup. The journey begins with the coffee tree, which undergoes an eight-month harvest cycle to yield the coveted coffee beans. The beans are meticulously processed before being exported globally, with companies like Cofi-Com Trading playing a crucial role in importing these raw materials.

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Angelo Augello, CEO of Bean Alliance, highlighted the unprecedented surge in coffee prices, attributing it to a prolonged supply deficit in the market. Augello noted a significant price hike over the past year, signaling a challenging period for the industry. The market dynamics were further complicated by the concept of “backwardation,” where immediate supply shortages led to lower futures market prices compared to current spot prices.

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Major players in the coffee industry, including Nestlé, Starbucks, and JDE Peet’s, had long influenced the supply chain. However, the entry of new players like Luckin Coffee from China added to the competitive landscape, with the Asian market showing a growing appetite for coffee consumption.

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As coffee prices continued to rise, Australian consumers braced for impending price hikes at their local cafes and retailers. Augello predicted an increase of A20 to A50 cents per cup in the coming months, reflecting the broader trend of rising coffee costs. Despite these challenges, retailers explored different pricing strategies to cater to diverse consumer segments.

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The sustainability of the coffee sector emerged as a critical concern, prompting industry initiatives to address environmental and social impacts. Organizations like Fairtrade International and Nestlé’s Nescafé Plan 2030 aimed to promote fair trade practices and sustainable sourcing. In Australia, companies like Reground played a vital role in reducing coffee waste and promoting environmental stewardship through innovative recycling programs.

Amidst these industry shifts, Australian coffee culture thrived, with a significant portion of the population relying on coffee for daily sustenance. The love for coffee remained strong, with consumers embracing a variety of pricing options while supporting sustainability efforts in the coffee sector.

As the coffee industry navigated unprecedented challenges in 2025, stakeholders across the supply chain worked to adapt to evolving market dynamics and consumer preferences, ensuring that the global coffee market remained resilient in the face of adversity.

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